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中国的国际贸易前景与世界
(博讯北京时间2010年1月08日 转载)
    来源:《经济学人》
    
    China’s share of world markets increased during the recession. It will keep rising
    
    在全球经济衰退中,中国在世界贸易中份额增加了,并且还将继续增加下去。
    
    Illustration by S. Kambayashi
    
    MANY people start the new year by resolving to change their old ways. Not China. On December 27th Zhong Shan, the country’s vice-minister of trade, declared that China will continue to increase its share of world exports. Figures due out on January 11th are expected to show that China’s exports in December were higher than a year ago, after 13 months of year-on-year declines. China’s exports fell by around 17% in 2009 as a whole, but other countries’ slumped by even more. As a result China overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter and its share of world exports jumped to almost 10%, up from 3% in 1999 (see chart).
    
    很多人是在改变以往的行事方式中开始新的一年的。但中国不是。在12月27日中国的贸易部副部长钟山宣布中国将继续扩张其在世界贸易中的份额。在连续13个月的同比下降之后,预期在一月十一日即将公布的数据将表明中国在12月的出口比一年前要高。中国在2009年的出口降低了17%左右,但其它国家的出口下跌得更多,结果是:中国超过了德国而成为世界上的最大出口国。中国在世界贸易中的份额也有1999年的3%跳跃到了10%(见图) 。
    
   中国的国际贸易前景与世界(图)
    
    China takes an even bigger slice of America’s market. In the first ten months of 2009 America imported 15% less from China than in the same period of 2008, but its imports from the rest of the world fell by 33%, lifting China’s market share to a record 19%. So although America’s trade deficit with China narrowed, China now accounts for almost half of America’s total deficit, up from less than one-third in 2008.
    
    中国在美国市场上所占的份额更高。在2009年的头10个月美国从中国的进口比2008年同期减少了15%,但美国从其它国家的进口下降了33%。这让中国产品在美国市场中的份额达到了创纪录的19%。尽管美国对中国的贸易赤字减少了,但中国仍占美国贸易总赤字的近一半,而在2008年这一数字少于三分之一。
     Trade frictions with the rest of the world are hotting up. On December 30th America’s International Trade Commission approved new tariffs on imports of Chinese steel pipes, which it ruled were being unfairly subsidised. This is the largest case of its kind so far involving China. On December 22nd European Union governments voted to extend anti-dumping duties on shoes imported from China for another 15 months.
    
    同世界其它国家的贸易摩擦在加剧。在12月30日,美国国际贸易委员会确认中国的不正当补贴,而同意对中国的钢管征收新关税。这是有关中国的最大一宗(贸易惩戒)案例。在12月22日欧盟政府投票将从中国进口的鞋类产品的反倾销特别关税在延长15个月。
    
    Foreigners insist that the main reason for China’s growing market share is that the government in Beijing has kept its currency weak. But there are several other reasons why China’s exports held up better than those of its competitors during the global recession. Lower incomes encouraged consumers to trade down to cheaper goods, and the elimination of global textile quotas in January 2009 allowed China to increase its slice of that market.
    
    外国人坚称中国贸易份额的增长的原因是北京政府弱化其货币。但还有其它几个因素使得中国的出口在全球经济衰退时期比其它竞争者更强。(比如)更低的收入使得消费者更倾向于更便宜的商品,在2009年1月终止的全球纺织品配额制也使得中国提高了市场份额。
    
    How high could China’s market share go? Over the ten years to 2008 China’s exports grew by an annual average of 23% in dollar terms, more than twice as fast as world trade. If it continued to expand at this pace, China might grab around one-quarter of world exports within ten years. That would beat America’s 18% share of world exports in the early 1950s, a figure that has since dropped to 8%. China’s exports are likely to grow more slowly over the next decade, as demand in rich economies remains subdued, but its market share will probably continue to creep up. Projections in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook imply that China’s exports will account for 12% of world trade by 2014.
    
    中国(在国际贸易)中的份额到底能达到什么高度?在到2008年为止的10年期间,以美元计算,中国的出口的平均年增长率为23%,是世界贸易增速的2倍还多。如果继续以这个速度增加下去,中国将在10年内取得世界贸易的1/4份额。这将比在1950年代早期美国所占世界贸易的18%的份额还要高。现在美国的贸易份额下降到了8%。由于富裕国家的经济疲软,中国的出口更有可能以慢一些的速度增长,但中国的贸易份额还将继续增长下去。IMF编写的《世界经济展望》就暗示中国的出口在2014年将占世界贸易的12%。
    
    Its 10% slice this year will equal that achieved by Japan at its peak in 1986, but Japan’s share has since fallen back to less than 5%. Its exporters were badly hurt by the sharp rise in the yen―by more than 100% against the dollar between 1985 and 1988―and many moved their factories abroad, some of them to China. The combined export-market share of the four Asian tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) also peaked at 10% before slipping back. Will China’s exports hit the same barrier as a result of weakening competitiveness, or rising protectionism?
    
    中国现在的10%的世界贸易份额就与日本在1986年达到顶峰时相当。但是从此以后日本的份额就下降到了现在的5%。它的贸易受到日元升值的伤害太大了。从1985到1988,日元对美元升值了100%。很多(日本公司)将它们的工厂搬到了国外,其中一些搬到了中国。“亚洲四虎”(香港、新加坡、南韩和台湾)的出口总份额也是在10%时达到了顶峰,然后就下降了。由于竞争力衰退或不断增强的保护主义,中国的贸易也会遇到这一阻点吗?
    
    An IMF working paper published in 2009 calculated that if China remained as dependent on exports as in recent years, then to sustain annual GDP growth of 8% its share of world exports would rise to about 17% by 2020. To consider whether that was feasible, the authors analysed the global absorption capacity of three export industries―steel, shipbuilding and machinery. They concluded that to achieve the required export growth, China would have to reduce prices, which would be increasingly hard to manage, whether through productivity gains or a squeeze in profits. In many export industries, particularly steel, margins are already wafer-thin.
    
    在2009年出版的IMF工作资料中推测:如果中国保持同样的对世界贸易的依赖度,保持GDP年均增长8%,那么在2020年中国在世界贸易中的份额将增加到17%。至于这种情况的可能性,作者分析了全球对三种产品的吸纳能力:钢铁、造船和机械。他们推断:要保持同样的出口增长,除非中国不得不降低价格,不管是通过提高生产力不还是降低利润,这都将越来越难于达到。在众多的出口产业中,尤其是钢铁业的利润已经非常低。
    
    However, China’s future export growth is likely to come not from existing industries but from higher-value products, such as computer chips and cars. Japan’s exports also moved swiftly up the value chain, but whereas this was not enough to support durable gains in its market share, China has the advantage of capital controls that will prevent its exchange rate rising as abruptly as Japan’s did in the 1980s. When China does eventually allow the yuan to rise, it will do so gradually.
    
    但是中国将来的出口增长将不会来自目前的出口产业,而是高附加值的产品,如计算机芯片和汽车。日本也曾经在产业链中的提升非常快,但这还是不能维持市场份额的双位数增长。中国在资本控制上占优势,这将阻止如1980年代日本经历的货币快速升值。当中国决定让货币升值的时候,他将一步步做。
    
    Another big difference is the vastness of China’s economy. China consists, in effect, of several economies with different wage levels. As Japan moved into higher-value exports, rising productivity pushed up wages, making old industries, such as textiles, uncompetitive. In China, as factories in the richer coastal areas switch to more sophisticated goods, the production of textiles and shoes can move inland where costs remain cheaper. As a result China may be able to remain competitive in a wider range of industries for longer.
    
    另一大不同点就是中国经济的庞大。事实上中国本身就包含了几个不同工资水准的经济体。当日本向高附加值产品出口提升时,提高的生产率使得工资也提高,这就使得旧的产业,如纺织,不再具有竞争力。在中国,当在沿海的工厂转向更复杂的产品的时候,纺织和鞋类的生产可以向成本仍然很低的内陆转移。其结果是中国将在更广泛的产业上保持更长时间的竞争力。
    
    Foreign hostility to China’s export dominance is growing. Paul Krugman, the winner of the 2008 Nobel economics prize, wrote recently in the New York Times that by holding down its currency to support exports, China “drains much-needed demand away from a depressed world economy”. He argued that countries that are victims of Chinese mercantilism may be right to take protectionist action.
    
    外国对中国在贸易上的主导的反感也在增强。2008年诺贝尔经济奖得主Paul Krugman最近在纽约时报上发表了一篇文章。他说:为了促进出口而打压货币,中国“从衰退的世界经济中浪费了十分需要的市场需求”。他说那些中国重商主义的受害国家有权利采取保护主义措施。
     From Beijing, things look rather different. China’s merchandise exports have collapsed from 36% of GDP in 2007 to around 24% last year. China’s current-account surplus has fallen from 11% to an estimated 6% of GDP. In 2007 net exports accounted for almost three percentage points of China’s GDP growth; last year they were a drag on its growth to the tune of three percentage points. In other words, rather than being a drain on global demand, China helped pull the world economy along during the course of last year.
    
    但对北京来说,事情是不一样的。中国的商品出口相对于GDP的比例已从2007年的36%下降到了去年的24%。中国的当前帐目顺差已经从GDP的11%下降到了6%。在2007年净出口(注:估计指的是出口增长)几乎占了中国经济增长的3%;但去年却将中国的经济增长扯低了3%。换句话说,中国在去年是推动世界经济的助力,而不是人为降低了全球的需求。
    
    Foreigners look at only one side of the coin. China’s imports have been stronger than its exports, rebounding by 27% in the year to November, when its exports were still falling. America’s exports to China (its third-largest export market) rose by 13% in the year to October, at the same time as its exports to Canada and Mexico (the two countries above China) fell by 14%.
    
    外国人只看到了事情的一面。事实上中国的进口比中国的出口要更强劲。去年到11月份为止,尽管中国的出口在下降,但中国的进口增长了27%。美国对中国的出口(中国是美国第三大出口市场)在到10月为止增加了13%。同一时期美国对加拿大和墨西哥(对美国来讲,是两个比中国更大的出口市场国家)的出口下降了14%。
    
    Some forecasters, such as the IMF, expect China’s trade surplus to start widening again this year unless the government makes bold policy changes, such as revaluing the yuan. However, Chris Wood, an analyst at CLSA, a brokerage, argues that China is doing more for global rebalancing than America. Rebalancing requires that China spends more and America saves more. Mr Wood argues that China is doing more to boost domestic consumption (for example, through incentives to stimulate purchases of cars and consumer durables, and increased health-care spending) than America is doing to boost its saving. America’s total saving rate fell in the third quarter of last year to only 10% of GDP, barely half its level a decade ago. Households saved more, but this was more than offset by increased government “dissaving”.
    
    一些预测者,比如IMF,预期今年中国的贸易顺差将再扩大,除非中国政府有大胆的政策改变,比如重估人民币的价值。然而,CLSA的分析人员Chris Wood说中国在世界再平衡方面比美国都做得多。再平衡就需要中国花更多的钱而美国人要更节省。Wood先生辩护说中国在促进国内消费上(比如为刺激汽车消费和耐用品消费而给予补贴,增加了医疗卫生方面的开支)比美国在促进节省上做的更多。在去年第三季度,美国的总存款率下降到了GDP的10%。只是10年前的一半。家庭省得比较多,但都被政府增加的“不节省”给抵消了。
    
    Strong growth in China’s spending and imports is unlikely to dampen protectionist pressures, however. China’s rising share of world exports will command much more attention. Foreign demands to revalue the yuan will intensify. A new year looks sure to entrench old resentments.
    
    中国强劲的消费和进口并不大可能降低保护主义压力。相反,中国在出口市场上份额的增加将更引得注意。国外对重估人民币价值的要求将增强。新的一年看起来会让不满持续下去。
    

_(网文转载) (Modified on 2010/1/08) (博讯 boxun.com)
(本文只代表作者或者发稿团体的观点、立场)

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